This project aims to determine the greatest home run hitter of all time by comparing each slugger’s statistics to the average of their era using three formulas. The final adjusted stats will then be used to compare them head-to-head with other all-time greats.
Juan Gonzalez will be the next legendary MLB slugger examined in this study. For a detailed biography of Gonzalez, please click here.
Before analyzing Gonzalez’s career numbers, it's essential to recognize his accomplishments as a hitter. Let's examine his rankings in key hitting statistics throughout his career. Juan Gonzalez appeared on the MLB leaderboards in the following categories:
1992: #8 (.529)
1993: #2 (.632)
1996: #2 (.643)
1997: #8 (.589)
1998: #4 (.630)
1999: #9 (.601)
1993: #7 (1.000)
1998: #9 (.997)
1992: #6 (309)
1993: #3 (339)
1996: #7 (348)
1998: #6 (382)
1998: #2 (50)
1992: #1 (43)
1993: #1 (46)
1996: #5 (47)
1997: #6 (42)
1998: #8 (45)
1992: #7 (69)
1993: #3 (80)
1996: #7 (82)
1998: #2 (97)
1993: #9 (122)
1992: #2 (13.58)
1993: #1 (11.65)
1996: #3 (11.51)
1997: #5 (12.69)
1998: #9 (13.47)
Both 1993 and 1998 could be seen as Juan González's best years at the plate, each with 7 appearances in the top 10 of the provided hitting leaderboard categories.
To determine which year might be considered "better" among the two, we can look at the quality of the rankings:
1993:
Two #1 rankings (Home Runs, AB/HR)
One #2 (Slugging Percentage)
Two #3 (Total Bases, Extra Base Hits)
One #7 (OPS)
One #9 (Runs Created)
Notable stats: 46 HR (#1), .632 SLG (#2), 11.65 AB/HR (#1)
1998:
Two #2 rankings (Doubles, Extra Base Hits)
One #4 (Slugging Percentage)
One #6 (Total Bases)
One #8 (Home Runs)
One #9 (OPS, AB/HR)
Notable stats: 97 Extra Base Hits (#2), 50 Doubles (#2), 382 Total Bases (#6)
1993 had higher-quality rankings and stronger power-hitting metrics (e.g., 46 HR, 11.65 AB/HR), while 1998 showed broader versatility (e.g., leading in Doubles and Extra Base Hits) but lower peak rankings (no #1s).
1993 is Gonzlez’s the best year due to its two #1 rankings (Home Runs, AB/HR) and strong performance in power categories, though 1998 was equally prolific in terms of leaderboard presence.
Now that we have a clear understanding of Gonzalez's accomplishments, we can proceed with the career analysis. According to Baseball Reference, Gonzalez’s official statistics reveal a total of 434 home runs over 6,556 at-bats resulting in an average of at-bats per home run 15.11 (AB/HR).
Juan Gonzalez spent the entirety of his career competing in the American League (AL) from 1989 to 2005.
When aggregating the statistics from each of the seasons Gonzalez competed in, the league totals include 1,294,373 at-bats and 38,807 home runs, resulting in an average of 33.35 at-bats per home run (AB/HR).
With this data, we can evaluate how Gonzalez’s performance compared to the average AL hitter of his era.
Raw Difference: -18.24
Formula: League Average – Player Career AverageImprovement Factor: 2.21x
Formula: League Average / Player Career AveragePercentage Difference: 54.69%
Formula: (League Average – Player Career Average) / League Average × 100%
AB/HR
Gonzalez hit a home run, on average, every 15.11 at-bats. A lower AB/HR indicates better home run frequency, as it takes fewer at-bats to hit a home run. The typical AL hitter during this period required 33.35 at-bats to hit a home run, reflecting a significantly lower home run rate than Gonzalez.
Raw Difference
Gonzalez required 18.24 fewer at-bats per home run than the league average, highlighting his superior power-hitting ability.
Improvement Factor
Gonzalez’s AB/HR was 2.21 times better than the league average, meaning he hit home runs at more than double the rate of the typical AL hitter.
Percentage Difference
Gonzalez’s AB/HR was 54.69% better than the league average, underscoring his elite performance relative to his peers.
Gonzalez’s AB/HR of 15.11 is remarkable, especially compared to the AL average of 33.35. He was a standout power hitter, even in an era known for high home run totals. The 2.21x improvement factor and 54.69% percentage difference indicate Gonzalez hit home runs at a rate far superior to the average AL hitter, placing him among the top sluggers of his time.
In our initial case study, we analyzed the careers of prominent Japanese and Negro League sluggers, alongside MLB greats Mickey Mantle, Alex Rodriguez, and Joe DiMaggio for comparison.
Now, let's compare Gonzalez’s career statistics against these baseball legends to gain a clearer perspective on how he stacks up.
Juan Gonzalez’s statistics closely mirror those of George Scales, a Negro League legend. Scales (-41.58/2.22x/54.99%) hit a total of 64 home runs over 2,178 at-bats resulting in an average of at-bats per home run 34.03 (AB/HR).
Among the league leaders in home runs during the 1990s, we have analyzed the power-hitting careers of the following players:
Vladimir Guerrero (-14.40/1.79x/44.23%)
Vinny Castilla (-13.04/1.61x/37.95%)
Tino Martinez (-12.08/1.58x/36.54%)
Shawn Green (-10.13/1.47x/31.94%)
Sammy Sosa (-20.59/2.42x/58.73%)
Ryne Sandberg (-13.89/1.47x/31.84%)
Ron Gant (-16.41/1.82x/44.95%)
Rob Deer (-22.42/2.33x/57.06%)
Rafael Palmeiro (-15.95/1.87x/46.43%)
Mo Vaughn (-16.09/1.95x/48.82%)
Mike Piazza (-17.68/2.09x/52.20%)
Mickey Tettleton (-16.65/1.87x/46.47%)
Matt Williams (-17.62/1.95x/48.75%)
Mark McGwire (-23.70/3.23x/69.08%)
Manny Ramirez (-17.29/2.16x/53.80%)
Larry Walker (-17.35/1.96x/49.04%)
Kevin Mitchell (-21.80/2.23x/55.23%)
Ken Griffey Jr. (-17.84/2.15x/53.41%)
Juan González ranks 5th among the listed 1990s MLB hitters based on percentage difference. Gonzalez’s power numbers were outperformed by only 4 players: Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rob Deer, and Kevin Mitchell. He surpasses 14 players, including notable names like Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza, Rafael Palmeiro, Mo Vaughn, and Vladimir Guerrero.
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Nice
Juan Gone had the misfortune of playing at a time whereas PED use was through the roof. In later years that has hurt him. I've always wondered what kind of career he would've had if he was a full time DH?